A Spy's Guide To Thinking - John Braddock I Summarized Books

A Spy's Guide To Thinking

The Thinking Process is a tool that works and has been used successfully to date

The reason why we think is so that we can take action. If thinking doesn't end in action, it is useless. For short, the chain of reasoning is D-A-D-A. The process can be illustrated, thus:
Data → Analysis → Decision → Action

Action is the endpoint of Thinking. The decision means we are choosing out of a range of options. When it comes to analysis, we are going through information or the data collected to check for its credibility, reliability, and its usefulness to the decision-making process. We compare new data with previously collected data.

Data is collected from all around the world, directly from sources or indirectly from media, with proper investigation. Data is gathered and analyzed; then you decide on what action to take.

In an organization, the four steps are split into various departments that either gather data, analyze it, make decisions, or take action.

John worked with the CIA and was a part of the thinking process in the US government. He was a case officer that collected data, risky data. He found ways to collect secret data that the US could use to make the right decisions. In compiling this data, he had to go through the four steps of thinking: collecting the data, analyzing it, deciding on the approach, and taking action to get the data to intelligence.

How the OODA Loop was formed

The D-A-D-A dates as far back as the 1950s when a flight instructor for the US Air Force took a close look at fighter pilots in a dogfight. He studied how they think, how they act, and how it all determines who wins the fight. His name was John Boyd. In his theory, Data was replaced by Observe, and Analysis by Orient, but they meant the same thing.

John realized that as a fighter pilot, you collect data on an enemy pilot by observing. And by doing so, you orient yourself to the enemy; then you decide what to do and you act. He concluded that the pilot that goes through this process quickest would win, and he called going through the process and continuing it, a loop. He named his theory the OODA Loop. The U.S. Air Force then made necessary changes to make their pilots go through the OODA Loop as quickly as possible and created planes that moved as swiftly as a pilot would think. They ditched their old ways of doing things and came up with a new plan for more maneuverable, responsive aircraft

The role of intelligence agencies in maintaining peace

The purpose of intelligence agencies in the thinking process is Data collection and Analysis. When an agency is done analyzing data, they generate a product called the finished intelligence that is taken to decision-makers​ (e.g., congress, president, cabinet or generals) who then decide and it moves to those who take action (e.g., soldiers, diplomats, spies).

John worked with the CIA and was a part of the thinking process in the US government. He was a case officer that collected data, risky data. He found ways to collect secret data that the US could use to make the right decisions. In compiling this data, he had to go through the four steps of thinking. Not only collect the data, but analyzing it, deciding on the approach, and taking action to get the data to the intelligence

The scientific research method and D-A-D-A process are alike

The analysis involves comparing new data with old data to figure out the options​ before you make a decision. Just like the scientific method that says: develop a hypothesis, test it, and observe the results, then with the results in hand, you decide whether the prediction was correct.

Scientists start with the hypothesis, like Albert Einstein, who said: The universe is expanding. He tested the theory against the available data; he analyzed the data and made a decision, in which he concluded that his hypothesis was false

Intelligence agencies generate questions and then send spies to find answers to them

Intelligence agencies ask decision-makers what they're thinking about, and based on the decision these people have to make, they generate questions that will now require the spies to go and source for data that will answer these questions. For example, a general worried about a border war and that the treaty may force him to intervene. His questions may be “What's the troop strength on both sides of that border? How many divisions does each side have? What's their tank technology and how efficient are there supply lines?” Then the spy sets out to answer these questions, and the D-A-D-A process starts again till the finished intelligence gets back to the general

Interactions and how it affects the thinking process

We as individuals interact in hundreds every day, from buying to selling, signaling, and even competing. So, with billions of people, interactions will be in the trillions. Every interaction is a game that either has winners, losers, or both. All our interactions are three kinds of games:
• Zero-sum;
• Positive-sum;
• Negative-sum.

Zero-sum​ is when one player can gain what the other player gives up or loses. An example is when The Germans gained the Alsace-Lorraine by force, and that ended up in the French losing it. In zero-sum, when you add what was lost and what was won by the players, it equals zero.

Positive-sum is like a cooperative. Both sides continue playing as long as they are both gaining or expect to gain. An example is any good marriage or partnership; the benefits are what keeps it together. When you add up the gains, the result is positive.

Negative-sum games are wars of attrition and are quite rare. Both sides are losing, and each side hopes they're losing less than the other. As soon as one side realizes they're losing more, the game is over. The games are like heavy elements that live for a short time before decaying.

Understanding these games is very important in reasoning, and will enable you to learn how people think, and predict what others will do next. To win a zero-sum, you have to know it’s coming, and you have to be good at positive-sum games.

Thinking is cheap, but the action is more expensive

Modern technology has made data collection more affordable, but, analysis is more complicated and costly. When you are thinking, you can stop or discharge some data. But, once you have started acting, it is hard to turn back. As you move towards action, the cost of gaining or losing goes up.

The opposite is the case for quantity. The amount of data started with is way less than the options of decisions. So, there's more analysis we can do than decisions we can make. And there are more decisions we can make than actions we can take. Good thinking leads to the right choices, then the right moves, which lead to good results

Saddam Husein and the war against the U.S

The big question was whether they had weapons of mass destruction or not. Some information pointed that Saddam Hussein had it, while others said he didn't. Some old data said that his scientists could build WMD while another said they couldn't. The U.S. wanted Saddam to get rid of the WMD he claimed to have, or prove that he had none, or they would go to war. It was a zero-sum game where Saddam either gets rid of WMD or welcomes war with the U.S.

The unusual thing is that Saddam wasn't trying to be a threat to the U.S. In fact, the US, or the U.N. was not among his first two enemies. His top two enemies were internal. From Iraqi history, you will recall that Saddam came to power in a coup, and even had many of his party members executed after. He put down several attempts on his life daily and was said never to spend two nights in one place. That was one zero-sum game, where him losing the game also meant losing his life.

His second enemy was Iran. Iraq and Iran fought a brutal border war in the 1980s that led to the death of thousands. Saddam feared another war could happen again. So, he thought of how he could win these two zero-sum games.

Saddam believed Iraq could not appear weak to Iran, so he made them think he had WMD to deter attacks. But, he also didn't want anyone in Iraq to possess WMD, so they wouldn't use it to threaten his power. He then created the impression of having stockpiles of WMD when indeed he only had a few.

That strategy worked until it came to the zero-sum game with the U.S. He had to choose between winning his top two games (internal battle and Iran), and have a war against the U.S. He decided to handle the immediate threats first, and that decision cost him his life

Conclusion

This short book focuses on two tools that help the thinking process. The Data-Analysis-Decision-Action chain that focuses on where we might have holes in our thinking. And the Positive-sum/Negative-sum/Zero-sum framework that helps us think ahead.

Try this:
When faced with a problem, gather all the information you can on it, analyze the data, then look at your options, make a decision, and take the necessary action.